The Congress-led People’s Front will bag 65 seats with an error margin of plus or minus 10 in the keenly contested Telangana Assembly elections for which polling was held on Friday, according to the survey results released by former MP Lagadapati Rajagopal.
Releasing the broad assessment by the RG-Flash Team, Mr. Rajagopal said that the team had been conducting several rounds of surveys since September after Chief Minister K. Chandrasekhar Rao dissolved the Assembly for an early election. The latest survey predicted 35 seats, with an error margin of 10 seats more or less to the ruling Telangana Rashtra Samithi.
The Congress-led alliance understood the pulse of people in Telangana, he asserted.
He said poll percentage of 72 was recorded after the polling ended at 5 p.m and it may even touch 73% once the final figures come in. The surveys were done by covering 1,000 to 1,200 people in every constituency every time and they got varying results. However, in the last two days, “unprecedented money was spent by all political parties and candidates and many inducements were offered and promises made by both the sides”.
The election outcome was determined by an undercurrent of anti-establishment mood and it was a mix of emotions like anger, hope, revenge and pity that went into play in this election, he said. This survey turned out to be a difficult one given varied dimensions and hence the error margin of 10 seats was given, he said.
He also said MIM would win six or seven seats, Independents seven, BJP seven seats and TDP seven with an error margin of two seats. TDP and TRS were locked in straight contest in 10 out of 13 seats out of which TDP would win seven seats with an error margin of two seats.
CPI(M) may win one seat in Khammam in a keenly fought election.
When asked that exit polls released by north Indian agencies/channels predicted that TRS will retain power, Mr. Rajagopal said that north Indian agencies could not read the situation in south India accurately and their survey results on elections in Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh in the past turned out to be wrong. His predictions in 2014 in Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and recently in Karnataka turned out to be true.
He said the prediction that Independents and BJP would win seven seats each was an indication of the anti-establishment mood. Wherever people were not happy with alliance candidates, they preferred to vote for independents or BJP rather than the TRS candidates.
Hyderabad recorded lower poll percentage as slum dwellers hailing from Telangana districts were called back by all the parties to their native districts to vote in the keenly contested election in the rural areas.